State of emergency: It is necessary to sufficiently reduce the number of people who are sick.
Professor Hiroshi Nishiura of Kyoto University calculated how people who will be infected with the new coronavirus will change in Tokyo.
According to the professor, the virus was transmitted to an average of 1.1 people from one person who became ill in late December in Tokyo.
When the state of emergency is declared and the average number of people is reduced to 0.88, the number of new people will be less than 500 on February 24th and 1st.
However, if the declaration is stopped at this time, the number will increase again and will exceed 1000 on April 14.
去年の緊急事態宣言のときは、１人からうつる人が平均で０．７２人でした
At the time of last year’s state of emergency, an average of 0.72 people were transferred from one person.
Calculated in this case, it will be less than 100 on February 25th.
Even if you stop declaring at this time, the number will not exceed 1000 until mid-July.
Professor Nishiura said, ”If you reduce it sufficiently at the beginning, the less period will last longer.
You have to think twice when you stop declaring. ”
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