“相互そうご関税かんぜいで世界せかい貿易ぼうえき戦争せんそうが起おきる” トランプ政権せいけん元もと高官こうかん

David Bowling, who served as a negotiator for the USTR United States Trade Representative during the first term of the Trump administration, responded to an NHK interview and expressed the view that the recently announced reciprocal tariffs could lead to a global trade war, and pointed out that we are about to enter an unknown era since World War II.

David Boring served as a USTR negotiator during the Obama administration, the first term of the Trump administration, and the Biden administration, and is familiar with President Trumps approach to tariffs. He is currently the Director of Japan and Asia Trade at the research company Eurasia Group.

<br>Definitely a global trade war<br>Mr. Boring points out that the mutually announced tariffs this time will be a historically significant event and will trigger a trade war involving the world.

<br><br>Many countries will retaliate with their own tariffs

Certainly trigger a global trade war.

We are about to enter an unknown world for the first time since World War II.

I believe we will look back on today as one of the most important days in the history of the world trade order.

President Trump is clearly trying to rebuild the world trade system and leave his mark on it.

He really wants to create the Trump Tariff Wall, and this is the first big step towards that.

<br>A shift in trade policy itself<br>Regarding the purpose of the tariffs this time, Mr. Bowling indicated that it signifies a shift in trade policy itself, which is significantly different from the first term.

<br><br>It is clear that there are several purposes for the current tariffs, and one of the important purposes is to bring manufacturing back to America

And I think the larger aim is to establish a solid tariff that all countries must pay to participate in the American market.

And Mr. Trump hopes that the tariffs will bring sufficient revenue to the American government.

Mr. Trump mentioned this tariff during his first term, but it was neither a goal of his first term nor did he attempt to implement it.

This is a complete shift in the way of thinking about tariffs

Tariffs have brought little revenue to America for decades, but Mr. Trump expects them to bring significant revenue, which is a notable shift in trade policy.

<br>Japan should explore room for negotiation<br>Meanwhile, Mr. Bowling says he was surprised by the imposition of a 24% tariff on Japan.

<br><br>It was higher than I expected

I did not expect the high tax rate of 24% considering that the tariffs imposed by Japan are lower than those of other countries, especially in industrial products.

<br><br>Additionally, regarding the basis on which the Trump administration argued that considering non-tariff barriers in Japan, it is equivalent to imposing a 46% tariff for the United States

<br><br>I think its a complex thing

As far as we have seen the way of calculating reciprocal tariffs, my understanding is that the tariff rate was calculated taking into account all factors such as tariffs imposed by Japan, non-tariff barriers, trade deficits, and even currency manipulation.

<br><br>In addition, it points out that it will be important for Japan to quickly consult with the Trump administration in order to minimize the negative impact of these tariffs.

<br>Japan needs to immediately contact the Trump administration and get a sense of whether there is room for negotiation.

I understand that there is not much room for negotiation, but there might be something Japan can do regarding issues such as the trade deficit and non-tariff barriers that the Trump administration considered when imposing mutual tariffs.

Mr. Trump is very interested in Japan purchasing LNG from the United States

It might have a good effect if we say we will buy more LNG from America.

One of the biggest non-tariff barriers in the automotive industry is safety standards.

Japan does not recognize American safety standards.

If Japan says it will accept American safety standards, it could be a big step.

One option might be to unilaterally reduce tariffs on seafood and agricultural products.

It is not politically easy for Japan to carry out these things.

I think Japan must also consider these things, given the magnitude of the tariffs that the Trump administration says it will impose.

<br>Significant Impact on Global Trade<br>Regarding the impact on the global economy, Mr. Bowling stated that it is too early to predict, but expressed the view that significant effects are unavoidable.

<br><br>Considering that this round of tariffs targets an enormous number of countries, and that the implementation of automobile tariffs has already been decided, it is likely to have a significant impact on global trade and will force countries to alter their supply chains.

The level of tariffs this time exceeded the expectations of many markets and countries, so the impact on the global trade order will likely be much greater than initially expected.

<br>Mutual tariffs will last for a considerable time<br>Furthermore, considering President Trumps strong attachment to tariffs and trade, Mr. Bowling predicts that these mutual tariffs will last for a considerable time.

<br><br>Based on what the White House has announced, I think these tariffs will continue as long as Mr. Trump wants to continue them

Mr. Trump has very strong feelings about trade and tariffs, and my expectation is that he will stick to this tariff for a considerable period of time.